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Asymmetric Retrospective Voting: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence of Negativity Effects in Voters' Response to the Economy

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dc.contributor.advisor Lebo, Matthew J. en_US
dc.contributor.author Kappe, Roland en_US
dc.contributor.other Department of Political Science en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2013-05-22T17:34:54Z
dc.date.accessioned 2015-04-24T14:46:54Z
dc.date.available 2013-05-22T17:34:54Z
dc.date.available 2015-04-24T14:46:54Z
dc.date.issued 2012-12-01
dc.identifier Kappe_grad.sunysb_0771E_11244 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1951/59719 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11401/71289 en_US
dc.description 134 pg. en_US
dc.description.abstract <p>Prospect theory tells us that humans pay more attention to losses than to comparable gains. My dissertation seeks to apply this insight to the field of retrospective voting and in particular economic voting. </p> <p>First, I develop a formal model of asymmetric retrospective voting which allows for incorporating loss aversion. Then, the empirical implications of this theoretical model are tested using a variety of methodological approaches. First, the model's predictions about human behavior are tested directly in a laboratory experiment using a simplified version of the asymmetric retrospective voting model. In a second step, the analytical focus is widened, turning from the individual to the aggregate level: Using monthly time-series data, the asymmetric retrospective voting model is tested using the reaction of aggregate vote intentions to changes in economic conditions and evaluations. In a final step, using the broadest lens, the implications of the model with respect to the "cost of ruling", i.e. the empirical phenomenon of declining vote shares for incumbent governments, are tested using a large cross-national sample of elections.</p> en_US
dc.description.sponsorship This work is sponsored by the Stony Brook University Graduate School in compliance with the requirements for completion of degree. en_US
dc.format Monograph en_US
dc.format.medium Electronic Resource en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher The Graduate School, Stony Brook University: Stony Brook, NY. en_US
dc.subject.lcsh Political Science en_US
dc.subject.other Asymmetric Retrospective Voting, Economic Voting, Political Economy, Prospect Theory, Voting en_US
dc.title Asymmetric Retrospective Voting: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence of Negativity Effects in Voters' Response to the Economy en_US
dc.type Dissertation en_US
dc.mimetype Application/PDF en_US
dc.contributor.committeemember Taber, Charles S. en_US
dc.contributor.committeemember Smirnov, Oleg en_US
dc.contributor.committeemember Meffert, Michael en_US

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