DSpace Repository

Exploring Fertility Expectations

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.advisor Dwyer, Debra S. en_US
dc.contributor.author Moore, Miranda Annette en_US
dc.contributor.other Department of Economics en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2012-05-15T18:05:10Z
dc.date.accessioned 2015-04-24T14:52:51Z
dc.date.available 2012-05-15T18:05:10Z
dc.date.available 2015-04-24T14:52:51Z
dc.date.issued 2010-12-01 en_US
dc.identifier Moore_grad.sunysb_0771E_10353.pdf en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1951/55556 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11401/72613 en_US
dc.description.abstract The past few decades have seen an incredible increase in the use of panel data to answer micro level questions in a variety of settings. This new longitudinal data has allowed economists to empirically explore many theoretical economic models. One area that has not been as extensively explored is the economics of fertility expectations. This paper uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) to explore the fertility expectations of a cohort of women who were 14 to 21 years old in 1979.We begin by investigating the impact of changes in the woman's socioeconomic status on the probability that she changes her fertility expectations. While the majority of our predictions are supported by our analysis, divorcing or separating from a spouse yield contradictory results. We also found counterintuitive impacts of losing self health insurance purchased through any source other than a current employer and losing health insurance for a child.We continue by analyzing which factors influence fertility expectation. We find that the majority of the observable variables representing a woman's background characteristics and her current socioeconomic status (marital status and education) have significant effect on her fertility expectations, both in statistical significance and magnitude. Additionally these effects are largely consistent with generally held beliefs.Next we test whether women are operating under a model of pure rationality or a model of rationality with learning. We fail to accept that the model the NLSY79 women use to form their fertility expectations is consistent with the rational expectations (RE) hypothesis. Our results provide support for the theory that women form their fertility expectations under a model of rationality with learning. Although our results are mostly consistent with our predictions, experiencing a change in the source of your own or your child's health insurance yields contradictory results. Understanding how women form and change their fertility expectations is important for many aspects of economics. Demographers who use fertility expectations to make future population predictions and economists who model a woman's simultaneous or sequential decisions of how many children to have and the quantity of market labor to supply will benefit from a better understanding of the fertility expectations of women. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship This work is sponsored by the Stony Brook University Graduate School in compliance with the requirements for completion of degree. en_US
dc.format Monograph en_US
dc.format.medium Electronic Resource en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher The Graduate School, Stony Brook University: Stony Brook, NY. en_US
dc.subject.lcsh Economics -- Demography en_US
dc.subject.other demography, evolving fertility, expectations, fertility, learning, Rational Expectations en_US
dc.title Exploring Fertility Expectations en_US
dc.type Dissertation en_US
dc.mimetype Application/PDF en_US
dc.contributor.committeemember John A. Rizzo en_US
dc.contributor.committeemember Mark R. Montgomery en_US
dc.contributor.committeemember Anja Decressin. en_US


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Search DSpace


Advanced Search

Browse

My Account