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Climatology and Predictability of Cool-Season High Wind Events in the New York City Metropolitan and Surrounding Area

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dc.contributor.advisor Colle, Brian A en_US
dc.contributor.author Layer, Michael en_US
dc.contributor.other Department of Marine and Atmospheric Science en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2017-09-18T23:49:45Z
dc.date.available 2017-09-18T23:49:45Z
dc.date.issued 2014-12-01 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11401/75994 en_US
dc.description 90 pgs en_US
dc.description.abstract Damaging wind events not associated with severe convective storms or tropical cyclones can occur over the Northeast U.S. during the cool season and can cause significant problems with transportation, infrastructure, and public safety. These non-convective wind events (NCWEs) events are difficult for operational forecasters to predict in the NYC region as revealed by relatively poor verification statistics in recent years. This study investigates the climatology of NCWEs occurring between 15 September and 15 May over 13 seasons from 2000-2001 through 2012-2013. The events are broken down into three distinct types commonly observed in the region: pre-cold frontal (PRF), post-cold frontal (POF), and nor'easter/coastal storm (NEC) cases. Relationships between observed winds and some atmospheric parameters such as 900 hPa height gradient, 3-hour MSLP tendency, low-level wind profile, and stability are also studied. Overall, PRF and NEC events exhibit stronger height gradients, stronger low-level winds, and stronger low-level stability than POF events. Model verification is also conducted over the 2009-2014 time period using the Short Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics are used to evaluate the performance of the ensemble during NCWEs. Although the SREF has better forecast skill than most of the deterministic SREF control members, it is rather poorly calibrated, and exhibits a significant overforecasting, or positive wind speed bias in the lower atmosphere. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship This work is sponsored by the Stony Brook University Graduate School in compliance with the requirements for completion of degree. en_US
dc.format Monograph en_US
dc.format.medium Electronic Resource en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher The Graduate School, Stony Brook University: Stony Brook, NY. en_US
dc.subject.lcsh Atmospheric sciences en_US
dc.title Climatology and Predictability of Cool-Season High Wind Events in the New York City Metropolitan and Surrounding Area en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US
dc.mimetype Application/PDF en_US
dc.contributor.committeemember Hameed, Sultan en_US
dc.contributor.committeemember Tongue, Jeffrey en_US

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